October 2026: a sixth hold, rising mortgage rates and Budget watch

October brings the autumn market into full swing, and there is a lot to cover this month. Mortgage rates have risen sharply, the Budget is on the horizon, and the interest rate outlook has shifted meaningfully since the summer.

Bank of England: a sixth hold, but a rise is looking more likely

The Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% on 17 September, for the sixth consecutive time, again voting 6 to 3.

The tone from the Bank was noticeably sharper than in previous months. Inflation rose to 3.1% in August, and the Bank now expects it to reach around 3.75% by the end of 2026 and potentially above 4% in early 2027. Governor Andrew Bailey was clear that the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the risk that a rate rise becomes necessary.

Market pricing as of late September implies the base rate could rise to around 4.4% by March 2027. The next decision is on 5 November, and a rise at that meeting cannot be ruled out.

Mortgage rates: a concerning picture

Mortgage rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. Across all lenders and deposit sizes, average fixed rates are now sitting around 5%, though well placed buyers with a solid deposit can still find deals below that. Rates are meaningfully higher than they were at the start of the year, and the direction of travel is upward.

Fixed rates are driven by swap rates, not the base rate, and swap rates have been rising sharply as markets price in the possibility of base rate increases. This is exactly why waiting to see what happens can cost more than acting now. If you secure a rate today and something better comes along before you complete, I can usually switch you across.

Budget watch: 28 October

The Autumn Budget is on 28 October. Here is what is confirmed and what to watch for.

Confirmed:

• Stamp duty will not change in this Budget. Andy Burnham ruled it out clearly and directly, so if you are buying, you can plan with confidence on the current bands.
• Rent controls have been ruled out in England.
• The mansion tax remains in place, applying to residential properties valued at £2 million or more from April 2028, based on 2026 valuations.

Being watched:

• There is speculation that Burnham may lower the mansion tax threshold from £2 million to £1.5 million, bringing an estimated 150,000 more properties into scope. This has not been confirmed.
• A possible increase to the stamp duty surcharge for landlords is being discussed. Nothing is confirmed, but it is worth being aware of if you are planning a buy to let purchase.
• Longer term, Burnham has historically supported replacing stamp duty and council tax with an annual proportional property tax. Specialists broadly expect any structural reform to come after the next general election in 2029, not imminently.

I will send a Budget special edition on 28 October with a clear breakdown of anything that directly affects buyers, homeowners and landlords.

The North West picture

Despite the national backdrop, the North West continues to outperform. House prices in the region are still growing and the market is functioning. Buyers have more negotiating power than they did in 2024 and agreed sales are taking a little longer, but motivated buyers with their mortgage arranged are still completing.

The autumn bounce is here, just in a market where affordability is tighter than many expected at the start of the year. Being well prepared makes a real difference right now.

How I can help

Whether you are buying for the first time, moving home or already on the ladder, I can help with first time buyer mortgages, home mover mortgages, remortgages, product transfers, buy to let, further borrowing, and protection including life cover, critical illness cover, income protection and buildings and contents insurance.

I compare deals from 90+ lenders and handle everything through to completion. You deal with me directly throughout, not a call centre.

My fees are straightforward. There is no broker fee on loans of £400,000 and above. On loans below £400,000 a fee of £395 applies, payable on application. Product transfers for existing clients are always free. Any fee is confirmed in writing before I start work.

If your deal is ending soon, or you are planning to buy this autumn, now is the time to act. Get in touch and I will take a look for you.